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The LinkUp Blog The Industry's Best-Kept Secret

April 4, 2006 / Toby Dayton

How Is Your Crystal Ball Working These Days?

The following are a series of industry estimates from a variety of sources regarding various aspects of the advertising market, both offline and online, including but not limited to recruitment advertising.
• Kelsey Group predicts that local search on the web will be a $13 billion market by 2010. The same report estimates that daily newspaper print classifieds will see negative growth rates during that period.
• Both DeSilva & Phillips and AdMedia Partners released reports predicting continued growth in media mergers and acquisitions in 2006.
• eMarketer projects that the market for podcast advertising will grow to $300 million by 2010, up from an estimated $80 million predicted a year ago.
• Merrill Lynch analysts predict another gloomy year for daily newspapers, with earnings per share growth of under 2% in 2006. The same report admits that the firm underestimated the desertion of auto ads to the web, and projects that that decline will continue into the foreseeable future.
• Piper Jaffray writes that “estimates of a 24% growth rate in online ad spending for 2006 are likely to prove conservative.”
• eMarketer predicts that web sites operated by print publishers will see online revenue growth of 36% to $1.4 billion in 2006. The same report estimates that the proportion of U.S. ad dollars spent online will climb from 4.6% to 7.5% by 2009, when the web will account for $22.3 billion of the total $298 billion spent on advertising across all mediums.
• Universal McCann’s Insider’s Report presented highlights of UBS’s Global Media Conference, at which Robert Coen predicted that advertising expenditures in the U.S. will reach $292 billion in 2006.
• Forrester estimates that total online recruitment advertising will reach $1.6 billion in 2006, and will climb to $2.5 billion by 2010. The same report predicts that online marketshare, as compared to print, will increase 30% during that period.
Any prediction centered around the impact or growth of the web runs the risk of sounding like the prognosticator being interviewed by Phil Hartman during an episode of News Radio in 1999 who predicted that “computers are going to be big.” So to emulate one of the great sitcoms of the last decade, my prediction for 2006 and every year after that is this: The internet is going to be big.

[tags]Forrester, Online Advertising, Recruitment Advertising, Universal McCann, Insider’s Report, eMarketer, Print Publishing, Print Publishers, Advertising, Media, Traditional Media, New Media, Piper Jaffray, Merrill Lynch, Daily Newspapers, Death of Newspapers, Decline of Newspapers, DeSilva & Phillips, AdMedia Partners, Kelsey Group, Advertising Trends, Media Trends[/tags]