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June 19, 2007 / Toby Dayton

Apple’s iPhone Will Exceed The Hype

Al Ries, in an Advertising Age article entitled “Why the iPhone Will Fail,” predicts that the iPhone will be a major disappointment because no one has yet been able to succeed with a ‘convergence’ device. Though my crystal ball is no better than his, I have no doubt that Ries’ forecast could not possibly be any more flawed. The iPhone will be even bigger than the outrageous hype surrounding its release. Unit sales will vastly exceed Apple’s paltry, falsely modest expectations of 1 million units, and the device will eventually be the top selling phone in the world. As will become evident in the 12 months following the June 29th launch, Apple’s market share will continue rising, the halo effect from the iPod, iTunes, Apple TV, Windows OS on a Mac, and the iPhone will be enormously powerful and far more significant than people realize, and Apple’s share price will climb well above $150 by the end of 2007. By all measures, the iPhone will be seen as one of the most successful consumer technology products ever brought to market.

By the way, Brent Shlender also completely misses the mark in his review of Apple TV in Fortune. As a first step in an evolving landscape, Apple TV is an exceptional starting point. The growth rate may not be as phenomenal as the iPhone or the iPod, but Apple TV will slowly gain traction and eventually become the primary, dominant connecting point between the computer and the TV. Within 3-5 years, Apple will have a larger market share for personal home computers than all the PC manufacturers combined.

[tags]iPhone, Apple iPhone, Apple TV, iPod, Al Ries, Brent Shlender, Halo Effect, Mac/PC, Mac v. PC, Beautiful Consumer Products, Mac Addicts[/tags]