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July 1, 2010 / Toby Dayton

LinkUp June Jobs Report Provides Glimmer Of Hope For Tomorrow’s Jobs Report

Given the slew of grim data released this week, it’s no wonder that the markets have reacted poorly. ADP reported that employers added only 13,000 people to their payrolls in June, far lower than the 60,000 economists were expecting. Earlier today, the Department of Labor reported that Initial Claims for Unemployment in the week ending June 26th rose to 472,000, raising the 4-week average up to 466,000, its highest level since March. Combined, the two employment indicators sent shivers through the U.S. markets this week and have prompted people to question the strength of the economic recovery (which was pretty anemic by all measures in any event).

In contrast, both the Monster Index and the Conference Board report showed that online job postings increased in June, although seasonal factors certainly must be taken into account in both cases. And further complicating tomorrow’s numbers will be the thousands of temporary census workers rolling off government payrolls. After accounting for those census workers and after many economists lowered their forecast based on the unexpected rise in jobless claims and the weak ADP report, consensus estimates are that the U.S. economy added between 75,000 – 125,000 jobs in June.

So is tomorrow going to bring good news or bad? As the Wall Street Journal writes, tomorrow’s “Jobs Data Loom Large.”

Based on LinkUp’s June jobs report, tomorrow’s jobs report will not be nearly as negative as people expect. LinkUp, whose job search engine indexes over 500,000 jobs from over 20,000 corporate websites, reported today that new job listings on corporate websites rose by 40,247 (8%) in June, while total job listings rose by 4,299 (0.5%). This is by far the largest monthly increase in new job listings on company websites in 2010, and much improved from the 4% decline in May. Equally as encouraging, 39 states (and Puerto Rico) reported increases in new job openings, also far better than the 24 that rose in May.

To hedge my bet slightly, especially given that corporate job openings posted to company websites are a leading indicator of future hiring, tomorrow’s report could very well be negative based on LinkUp’s negative report in May. If that is the case, then our June jobs report should bode well for a strong jobs report from the Department of Labor in July.

In terms of the states that added the most job openings on company websites during the month, Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia added the most new and total job openings, while New Hampshire had the largest percentage increase in June. California, Texas, and Connecticut showed the largest declines in new and total job listings, while Delaware, Connecticut, and California reported the largest percentage declines.

Even more encouraging, new job listings by category rose by 108,309 (27%) and total job listings by category on company websites rose by 116,617 (16%). Exactly the same as May, 26 of 36 job categories showed an increase in new job listings, while 23 of 36 categories showed an increase in total job listings.

In terms of specific categories, Accounting & Finance, Health & Medical, and Retail showed the largest gains in new and total job listings, while Banking & Finance, Automotive, and Interns/New Graduate showed the largest declines in new job openings.

LinkUp, one of the fastest growing job search engines on the web, indexes job openings from over 20,000 corporate and employer websites throughout the country. Because the index is updated daily and only includes job listings that are found on career portals within company websites, the completely unique jobs data is extremely reliable. There are no jobs from recruiters, headhunters, search firms, or staffing companies, and no scam jobs, phishing jobs, ‘money mule’ ads, or other fraudulent postings.

And because LinkUp only indexes jobs from a single source – the hiring company itself – there are no duplicate or ‘job jacked’ listings that pollute job board aggregator sites such as Indeed and Simplyhired. Perhaps most importantly given the current high-unemployment environment in which companies are not compelled to advertise as aggressively in order to generate candidate flow for their openings, the jobs data is not based upon paid help-wanted advertising activity.