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LinkUp Jobs Data Indicates That The October Jobs Report Will Be Far Worse Than Expected
I’m not typically one who looks for or pays attention to signs from the cosmos, but it was a truly bizarre coincidence that as I was assembling the output from our jobs forecasting model and started to get a sense of what the picture looked like, Cat Stevens’ Trouble began playing on KEXP’s stream. (Seriously – 10:34AM CST, 11/2/11). Troubling, indeed, Friday’s jobs report from the Department of Labor will be “too shocking to see” for the markets. Based on the jobs data from LinkUp in September and October, Friday’s BLS report is going to be the worst since September of 2010 and November’s may be even more dismal.
In October, new job listings in LinkUp’s job search engine (which indexes nearly 1 million jobs from approximately 25,000 company websites throughout the U.S.) dropped 10% and total job listings on company websites fell 2%. Even more troubling, 47 states showed declines in new job listings and 40 states reported declines in total job listings.
In terms of jobs by category, new job listings fell by 9% and total job listings dropped 2% from September. 26 of the 31 job categories tracked by LinkUp showed declines in new jobs in October, while 19 of 31 job categories showed declines in total job listings.
LinkUp is the largest, fastest growing job search engine that only indexes jobs found on corporate websites throughout the U.S. Updated daily, LinkUp’s job search engine includes approximately 850,000 job openings indexed from over 22,000 company websites. Because LinkUp does not allow anyone to post jobs directly to the site, the search engine does not include any garbage listings such as job scams, phishing posts, work-at-home-scams, or old listings. And because LinkUp only indexes jobs from a single source (the employer’s corporate website itself), there are no duplicate listings that pollute aggregator sites such as Indeed and Simplyhired.
Based on LinkUp’s jobs data for the past two months (in September, new job listings declined by 10.9% and total job listings dropped 9.8%), we are forecasting that Friday’s jobs report will show that the U.S. economy lost 47,000 jobs during the month, far worse than the consensus estimate of job growth somewhere between 90,000 to 100,000 jobs. Based on the grim jobs numbers reported here for October, we are forecasting that the U.S. economy will shed another 217,000 jobs in November.
Already “shattered and tossed and worn,” the economy, the markets, and the condition of the average American household, not to mention the 14 million Americans currently unemployed, can hardly take any more misery. Unfortunately, more trouble is on the way.
Friday’s going to be a disaster.