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December 6, 2012 / Toby Dayton

Look For Strong Jobs Reports in November & December; Let’s Hope The Grinch Doesn’t Ruin The Start Of The New Year

Despite pretty bleak jobs data from LinkUp’s job search engine in November, we’re forecasting that tomorrow’s jobs report will be better than anticipated. We’re also predicting that December’s jobs report will be quite strong. Unfortunately, our jobs data from November points to a weak start to 2013, but we’ll see what happens as we get closer to the new year. Maybe Santa will bring some better data for December, because at the moment, the data we have from November is just as awful as a giant lump of coal.

In November, new jobs on corporate websites throughout the U.S. fell 17% from October, and total job listings dropped 6%. Even more dismal than the raw numbers, only 4 states (ID, MT, ND, MN) showed an increase in new or total jobs. That lone bright spot in the Northern Plains surely reflects the booming economic activity from growing oil and gas production that has increased demand for workers. Other than that single region of the country, however, the rest of the U.S. reported pretty horrific numbers.

LinkUp is the largest and fastest growing job search engine that only indexes jobs that are only found on company websites throughout the U.S. LinkUp’s index currently lists over 1.1 million jobs indexed from over 22,000 companies. As a result of this unique approach to job listings, LinkUp’s search engine and the resulting data set are completely free of the pollution that plagues other sources such as old listings, duplicate listings, lead-gen bait, work-at-home-scams, fraudulent job posts, and jobs posted by 3rd-party intermediaries. As a result of this approach, our jobs data is free of any noise and provides a very accurate picture of labor demand in the U.S. economy.

Jobs by category in November were just as horrible as state by state data, with new job listings by category falling by 15% in November and total job listings dropping 4%. Of the 31 categories tracked by LinkUp, only 2 (Manufacturing & Operations and Supply Chain & Logistics) reported increases in new and total job openings. While that might provide a faint glimmer of hope for the nation’s manufacturing, the numbers as a whole indicate that job growth in the beginning of next year will be anemic at best.

Based on our data from September and October, we are anticipating that 225,000 jobs were added to the U.S. economy in November, and forecasting that 375,000 will be added in December.

Because a job listing is the strongest signal of demand for a future hire, typically about 60 days down the road, our 60-day forecast reflects the 4.2% increase in new and total job listings in LinkUp’s search engine in September and the 14% gains seen in October. As we mentioned previously, however, the numbers in November point to a tougher month in January. Let’s hope things change before the Grinch shows up.