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May 5, 2015 / Toby Dayton

A Bullish, Hands-Free NFP Forecast For Friday’s Jobs Report

The cast came off today (snowboarding in Colorado – see last month’s post) but my typing is still horrific so I have to make one more essentially hands-free, and hence commentary-free, non-farm payroll (NFP) forecast.

For the 3rd month in a row beginning in January, new and total job listings on LinkUp’s job search engine rose more than 10% in March, indicating that labor demand continues to strengthen and Friday’s jobs report for April should come in above consensus estimates.

April 2015 Forecast

In April, new and total jobs rose 1% and 3% respectively.

Jobs by State April 2015

New and total jobs by category also rose 2% and 3% respectively.

Jobs by Category April 2015

And finally, job duration ticked up a bit to 48 days in April, most likely due to rising labor demand and the challenge employers are beginning to feel in filling openings.

Job Duration April 2015

So despite the temporary anomaly in March’s weak jobs numbers (which we expect to¬†be revised upward), growth in job listings on corporate websites¬†remains strong (LinkUp lists 3.1 million jobs, 100% of them indexed from 50,000 company sites) and job growth will inevitably follow.