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July 1, 2015 / Toby Dayton

An Epic Few Weeks For Human Dignity & Great News Will Continue With Outstanding Jobs Numbers Tomorrow

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What an epic week for human dignity. Between the Supreme Court’s rulings on same-sex marriage and the Affordable Care Act, combined with confederate flags becoming more and more obsolete and President Obama’s plan to significantly expand eligibility for overtime pay, the headlines have been filled with one incredible story after another. And lest anyone thinks things couldn’t possibly get any better, wait until tomorrow’s jobs report for June.

Based on the strong gains in new and total job openings on LinkUp’s job search engine in May (which rose 15% and 7% respectively), we are forecasting a net gain of 350,000 jobs in June – well above Bloomberg’s consensus forecast of 234,000 jobs.

NFP_2015.07.01

Even more encouraging is the fact that new and total listings in our job search engine (which includes 3.2 million unique job openings indexed directly from 50,000 company websites) rose 25% and 11% respectively in June, numbers that indicate rather convincingly that the labor market should continue barreling ahead at a robust clip for at least the next month or two, if not longer.

LinkUp's June 2015 NFP Forecast

In June, gains in new and total job openings on LinkUp were spread across the entire country (WTF, Alaska?), with almost every state reporting huge double-digit increase in new job openings.

Jobs By State June 2015

Jobs by category saw similar gains in the aggregate, although the variability between categories was much more pronounced.

Jobs By Category June 2015

Of particular note is the incredible growth of new job listings in the retail sector which exploded from 99,000 new openings in May to 224,000 new openings in June, an increase of 127%. Science/Pharma/Biotech and Healthcare also saw considerable increases, but the skyrocketing labor demand in retail is remarkable. (Perhaps we’ll see even better retail sales numbers in Q4 ’15 than we did in Q4 ’14 – numbers we accurately predicted based on retail job growth we started seeing last April).

Total Retail Jobs On LinkUp June 2015

 

So happy 4th of July. Tomorrow’s jobs report should make the hot dogs taste even better and the fireworks even brighter.

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