08/05/2020 Toby Dayton

LinkUp Forecasting Better-Than-Consensus Jobs Numbers For July

    Labor demand continued to rise in July, with steady gains in total, new and removed job openings across the U.S. that were nearly identical to the percent gains seen in June.



    Looking at total daily job openings and the rolling 30-day average for new and removed job openings shows just how quickly labor demand has snapped back since early March. Following the steep decline in March and April, the 30-day rolling average for new job openings has risen 100% off its low from early May and is nearly back to the 2020 high-water mark reached on the first week of March.



    The LinkUp 10,000, a metric that measures the job openings for the 10,000 global employers with the most job openings in the U.S. for the month, rose 7.2% in July.




    Looking at our pairred-month data which measures the change in new and total job openings for a set of companies that were hiring in both June and July, new and total jobs rose 13% and 9% respectively.



    Perhaps the only negative number among all the labor demand data we track was Closed Duration which essentially measures hiring velocity. In July, hiring velocity slowed down a bit as the average number of days that job openings stayed open rose from 42 to 45 days.



    The only other slightly negative indicator was the LinkUp 10,000 Daily which started declining in late July after a long and steady rise from its low in late April.



    Based on our paired-month data, we are forecasting a net gain of 1,950,000 jobs in July, slightly above the consensus estimate of 1.6 million jobs.



    As always, stay safe and healthy and wear a mask.

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