We’ll have more analysis in the next few days (our monthly data doesn’t get processed 1AM after the last day of the month) but I wanted to get this published before tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payroll report for August.
In July, new and total jobs declined 9% and 1% respectively, with the vast majority of states reporting declines in new and total job listings.
Based on the blended decrease of 5% between new and total jobs, we are forecasting a net gain of just 135,000 jobs for August.
The consensus forecast is 180,000 jobs, and ADP’s report set an August record, but as Bloomberg reported this week, economists have overestimated August payroll gains for 6 straight years. Let’s hope the streak continues.