06/29/2018 Toby Dayton

Strong Job Growth In June Should Make For Some Great Fireworks Next Week

With the recent launch of The LinkUp 10,000 that we’re still incorporating into our models and ongoing work and correlation analysis around the last few components of our Macro Job Market Data package that will be released in July, combined with some additional improvements we are making to our non-farm payroll forecasting model that we expect to implement in the next month or so, I am going to keep our June NFP forecast commentary to a bare minimum.

Using a paired-month methodology that compares job openings in April and May for a large set of companies and employers common across both months, new job openings rose 6% from April and total job openings rose 3%.

 

 

Based on those job opening gains in May and given the fact that a job opening is highly predictive of a job being added to the economy in a future period, we are forecasting a net gain of 265,000 jobs for June’s non-farm payroll report to be released next Friday.

 

 

We’ll provide much more detailed analysis early next week along with an initial preview of some of our macro data and some related correlation analysis, but for now, suffice it to say that June’s NFP report should lead to some great fireworks next week.

 

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