We will post additional analysis periodically through the remainder of the day, but the headline is that we are forecasting a net gain of 235,000 jobs for tomorrow’s non-farm payroll (NFP) report for April.
Update below posted at 4:55PM CT
As promised, we are adding a few additional charts that all support our above-consensus forecast of a net gain of 235,000 jobs in April. If anything, we’d further add that if there is a surprise tomorrow, it will be to the upside of our already bullish forecast.
In April, using our paired month data which only includes companies that were hiring in both March and April, new job openings were flat while total jobs rose 3%. More importantly, the data shows that total jobs rose in 49 states.
Total unique jobs rose 3.4% while new and removed jobs rose 2.8% and 2.6% respectively.
The LinkUp 10,000, which measures aggregate job openings from the 10,000 employers in LinkUp’s job search engine with the most job openings in a given month, rose 3.9% in April to just under 4 million.
And finally, Job Duration, which measures hiring velocity across the U.S. economy as reflected in the average number of days that job listings were open on employer websites before they were removed in April, dropped a stunning 20% in April, falling from 50 days to 40 days.
Given all of LinkUp’s job market data for April, we are looking for a very strong jobs report tomorrow.