Toby Dayton
A month or so ago, listening to Beck’s Paper Tiger, one particular line stuck in my head as a perfect description for the times we live in. What better way to describe this current End-of-Days-type era than as ‘a stray …
Toby Dayton
In the forecasting business, particularly one as difficult as non-farm payrolls, it’s difficult to refrain from periodic instances of self-congratulatory gloating. So bear with me for just a minute as I begin this month’s NFP post by turning back to …
In a blog post in May, 2016, we declared for the first time that the U.S. labor market had reached Full Employment. At the time, unemployment was 5% and we outlined the complete case for having achieved Full …
Toby Dayton
New and total job listings on LinkUp’s job search engine dropped 8% and 3% respectively in December as labor demand fell across the entire country. Only 2 states, Kentucky and West Virginia, bucked the national trend, however slightly, with a …
Toby Dayton
Given the times we’re in, the Republican tax bill that was signed just this week, and our forecast for December’s non-farm payrolls, we have no choice but to lead with arguably the greatest Christmas curmudgeon of all time. But because …
Given the devastation of hurricanes this fall, both in terms of frequency and ferocity, it’s obvious that their impact is not only still being felt today, but will continue to be felt for months to come. But as Texas, Florida, …
It’s tough to jump into our October non-farm payroll (NFP) forecast without first revisiting our eye-popping forecast for September. Based on significant job listing gains in our job search engine in August, we forecasted a net gain of 260,000 jobs …
Meg Slindee
Geoffrey the Giraffe will probably survive this most recent bankruptcy in the retail bloodbath that is 2017. For now, at least. Every 90’s childs’ (and this 9-year-old’s) favorite retailer filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy September 18, citing the need to …
[Note: Our Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) forecasting model does not include any adjustments for seasonality, not does it take into account particularities associated with severe weather. In the case of our September NFP forecast, we did not make an adjustment to …
Before posting our NFP forecast for September, I thought we should post the numbers for August. While some might expect an upward revision to August’s jobs numbers either next week or in November, we are sticking with our initial forecast …
