With each month that unemployment in the U.S. remains stubbornly high, focus on the government’s ‘official’ monthly jobs report grows increasingly intense. Unfortunately, while the anticipation surrounding tomorrow’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics has reached new levels, so too has the uncertainty around what the report will say about job growth across the country. Bloomberg is reporting a consensus forecast of 67,000 jobs created in August, but the range of estimates is extraordinarily high, with a low of -5,000 to a high of +150,000. (I can’t help but wonder if that 150,000 is LinkUp’s forecast from August 3rd.) Seeking Alpha reports a slightly higher consensus estimate of 110,000 jobs, but in any case the clear consensus is that job growth remains anemic and will be less than July’s jobs report.
ADP’s numbers would also indicate that job growth in August will come in below expectations, as they reported yesterday that the private sector added only 91,000 jobs during the month. Economists had expected the ADP number to come in around 100,000. And finally, the Conference Board reported that online job demand fell by 163,900 in August, following declines of 217,000 in July and 100,000 in June. It should be noted, however, that the Conference Board is counting job ads on daily newspaper websites and online, pay-to-post job boards such as Monster, both of which are in advanced stages of obsolescence, so I wouldn’t put too much stock in their numbers.
So if everyone is expecting a disappointing number tomorrow, one might ask where the uncertainty I mentioned above is coming from. Right or wrong, the uncertainty is coming from the disconnect between a pessimistic consensus estimate and a very optimistic 60-day jobs forecast from LinkUp, a job search engine that ONLY indexes jobs from corporate websites (Updated daily, LinkUp’s index contains 877,000 job openings from 22,125 corporate websites as of this morning). LinkUp issued its August jobs report earlier today, and based on the growth in new and total jobs in August, combined with what we reported in June and July, we have revised our August forecast that we issued on August 3rd from a positive 150,000 jobs created in August to a gain of 205,000. As well, based on LinkUp’s data, we expect that 275,000 jobs will be added to the U.S. economy in September, and 435,000 jobs in October.
In August, the companies in LinkUp’s job search engine added 419,000 new jobs to their company websites, an increase of 12% from July. Total jobs on LinkUp increased by 7% in August to 979,000. 45 states showed an increase in new job listings on company websites, while 48 showed an increase in total job openings on company websites.
The growth in LinkUp’s new and total job listings is the largest since January of this year, and the 3rd largest since November of 2009. (The percentage gains for August are slightly different than the state table above because we use an average of the two data sets for July in our ‘paired-month’ methodology that accounts for the addition of new companies into the index).
LinkUp is the fastest growing job search engine on the web and indexes only job openings that are published on company websites. The New York Times’ About.com named LinkUp the best job search engine on the web because of our highly unique value proposition for both job seekers and employers. LinkUp does not list any jobs from other job boards, nor do we allow anyone to post jobs directly to the site. Rather, LinkUp’s job search engine currently lists about 877,000 job openings indexed and updated daily from approximately 22,000 company websites throughout the U.S. As a result of this completely unique approach to job listings online, LinkUp’s search engine does not include any old jobs, scam jobs, phishing jobs, or duplicate listings. Nor do we include job listings from staffing companies, headhunters, search firms, or other 3rd party recruiters. It is for these reasons that our jobs data is so highly correlated to future hiring trends.
With the solid gains in total jobs in June, July, and August, we are forecasting that not only will job growth be strong for the next 60 days, but that it will finally start accelerating. (Our forecasts assume a 60-day ‘lag’ between our data for a given month and the impact on the jobs numbers from the BLS).
Predicting the actual unemployment rate in the near future is far more difficult given the massive uncertainty around the labor-force participation rate and ‘Discouraged’ workers, combined with the churn in the labor market that will undoubtedly result when things start to loosen up, but there is absolutely no doubt that the labor market is improving.
It’s about time.
MINNEAPOLIS — Job search engine LinkUp.com released its 60-day job forecast today based on nearly 1,000,000 job openings indexed each month from over 20,000 company websites. Based on data from May and June, LinkUp is predicting that the July jobs report issued by the Labor Department on August 5th will be better than economists are expecting. Completely unique in the industry, LinkUp’s job search engine only indexes job listings from company websites, making its data highly correlated to future hiring.
Consensus estimates for this Friday’s jobs report forecast that non-farm payrolls grew by only 75,000 in July. While that would be an improvement from May and June’s anemic job growth, roughly 200,000 new jobs are needed each month to simply keep pace with population growth. LinkUp, however, is forecasting that 105,000 jobs were created in July. Even more encouragingly, the search engine is forecasting that 150,000 jobs will be added in August. Unfortunately, LinkUp’s jobs data from July indicates that the U.S. economy will add a scant 70,000 new jobs in September.
In July, new job postings on the 20,000 company websites indexed daily by LinkUp dropped 9% from June, while total job listings on those same company websites fell by 1%. Declines were spread throughout the country, with 42 states reporting a decrease in new job listings and 27 states reporting a decline in total job listings on company websites. In terms of jobs by category, new job listings fell in 27 of 31 industries, while total job listings dropped in 17 of 31 industries.
The education sector stands as perhaps the only bright spot in an otherwise grim report for July. Total education jobs on LinkUp rose 19% from June, while new job listings in the education industry increased by 36%. For more information on job growth in other industries, job growth by state, or LinkUp’s jobs data for Q1 and Q2 of 2011, please visit LinkUp.com.
Earlier this morning ADP released their monthly private payroll data showing a rise of 157,000 in payrolls, a sharp increase over the meager 36,000 new payrolls announced in May. Tomorrow, the Department of Labor is set to release their jobs report, with the expectation that the economy added 110,000 new jobs in June.
With LinkUp, we provide a similar view into the health of the economy, using a slightly different lens. While ADP and the Labor Department focus on new employees hired, LinkUp analyzes the original job postings (found on the company’s website) that were filled by those employees. Our goal is, as the saying goes, to provide real-time jobs data that looks through the windshield, and not the rear-view mirror.
For June, our LinkUp data shows a 6% rise nationwide in new jobs posted on company websites. Regionally, the Southeast reported the largest new job gains. Leading all states in new job growth was Mississippi (43%), followed by Louisiana (40%). Other states showing large gains in the Southeast include Alabama (29%), Tennessee (28%), Georgia (22%), North Carolina (18%) and Arkansas (15%).
Visit our Job Market Reports section for June Job Growth by Industry and other information.
Each day we monitor, collect and analyze jobs from thousands of employer websites across the US. At the beginning of the following month we calculate and release our findings.
For May, our data shows 371,555 new jobs added to our search engine index. This is up 5% from April, where 352,213 jobs were added. Calculating total jobs (new and previously active job openings) for May, our results indicate an overall increase of 7% comparing the data to April.
The slight rise in total jobs appears to be fairly evenly distributed across the US, with all 50 states showing increases. Looking at new jobs, 37 states indicate some amount of growth — top states include: West Virginia, Connecticut and Vermont.
Automotive jobs saw the most growth by category, followed by Customer Service and Law Enforcement & Security. Twenty-two of 31 job categories experienced an upward shift in job count.
Tomorrow the BLS will announce their May data, which was recently revised downward after ADP released disappointing numbers yesterday.
Today Google, Bing and Yahoo announced a partnership to create a universal markup for better searching and organizing things like people, events and books. They made this format available (in easy-to-read language with examples) at http://schema.org/
But they neglected to include a “schema” for job listings, and LinkUp is working to bring this to their attention. So although their big change will make things like recipes for chicken cacciatore or websites about Bob Dylan more accessible, real job openings will continue to evade the big 3 search engines.
Fortunately Google, Bing and Yahoo are becoming more accessible and together we can fix this oversight.
Lawyers and Doctors are obvious choices when thinking about careers that pay well. Although they are secure positions in fruitful and thriving industries, are these degree-intensive jobs your only option to getting to six figures? Are you stuck working for less because you don’t want to attend ten years of college? Think again. Below is a list, compiled by CNBC.com, on attainable & surprising six-figure jobs in demand in today’s economy:
- Afghan Language Specialist jobs – The two main Afghan languages are Dari and Pashto and since the US became involved in the Afghan war, supply and demand for interpreters and linguists who can communicate with the people of Afghanistan can make upwards of $187,000 to $193,000.
- Personal Trainer jobs – Health & fitness is a booming industry, and you don’t have to be Jillian Michaels from the Biggest Loser to make money. Many Personal Trainers can make $100,000+, especially if you are certified. LinkUp lists 447 personal trainer jobs for 24 Hour Fitness USA alone.
- Flight Training Coordinator jobs – Pilots are known to make good money, but they have to learn the industry from someone, right? Flight Training Coordinators can easily make upwards of $118,000 and the top 10 percent are known to reach into $200,000 annually. From a bird’s eye view, not bad.
- Call Center Analyst jobs – Call Center jobs are typically thought of as lower-paying jobs, often sent oversees. However, an Analyst within a call center (responsible for quality and training) can earn as much as $121,000.
- Nuclear Power Reactor Operator jobs – Perhaps not the safest of jobs, Nuclear Power Reactor Operators can top the salary scales at $128,000 due to the dangers that persist.
- Casino Manager jobs – Look to Las Vegas and Atlantic City. Directing customer complaints, managing casino personnel and monitoring those scheming blackjack card counters can earn an experienced Casino Manager $100,000 a year.
- Court Reporter jobs – Think you’re a fast typer? Court reporters who type 200 wpm manage to earn $105,000. Forecasted to become more and more in demand in the next decade, job security in this area looks like it will be in the fast lane.
- Elevator Mechanic jobs – Being a “Vertical Transportation Director” can earn the experienced Mechanic up to $109,000.
- Pharmacist jobs – With a job outlook jumping upwards of 17 percent in the next decade, Pharmacists, averaging an $112,000 annual salary can rest assure their duties of filling prescriptions and offering advice on medication interactions will be compensated accordingly.
- Biostatistician jobs – A Biostatistician is a statistician for the health field. Although the top earning Biostatistician usually requires a PhD, working in a hospital or pharmacy setting can easily earn you well in to $100,000. And it’s a growing industry thanks to the retiring Baby Boomers.
- Loan Officer jobs – Loan Officers in high-powered banks, who oversee the large and complicated transactions of real estate, surprisingly make well into the six-figure salary range. And with a 10 percent increase in jobs offered in the next decade, your outlook on finding that desired salary is looking rich.
- Regional Chef jobs – With responsibilities such as training, regional menu planning and food price negotiations, Regional Chefs can potentially earn $111,000 to ensure you have a fantastic steak at your local restaurant.
- Nurse Practitioner jobs – With the number of Nursing jobs expected to jump 22 percent in the next decade, Nurses will continue to be in high-demand. The median salary for a Nurse Practitioner working in the neonatal unit or as a nurse anesthetist can earn well into the $100,000 range.
- Merchandise Buyer jobs – Retail and fashion is big business. One fashion faux pas from a buyer can spell disaster for a company – a good reason why the top 10 percent of merchandise buyers can earn upwards of $131,000.
- Petroleum Geologist jobs – These Geologists work directly for oil corporations or environmental companies. Base salary is $150,000 and up to $200,000 after adding in bonuses and other compensation.
Yesterday, we released a major upgrade to our Twitter job posting platform, adding a number of powerful features in response to growing customer demand. The new functionality allows employers greater control when posting jobs to Twitter. Here are a few highlights:
- Segment specific job tweets according to keyword and location (e.g. all Nevada jobs tweeted to @companyName_NV handle)
- Distribute job Tweets securely across multiple Twitter accounts (e.g. personal and/or company Twitter handles)
- Full control over how job Tweets appear on Twitter
- Quickly add new handles with a simple, shareable link
- Ability to easily set re-Tweet schedules
We provide Twitter job distribution for our paid search clients at no additional charge. Learn more about posting jobs to Twitter or contact us to get started.
LinkUp announced today that total jobs found on company websites increased by 10,907, or 1%, in April. This is down from an overwhelmingly positive March report, where 117,508 jobs (17%), were added. The data appears to be aligned with ADP’s private payroll report (released Wednesday) and the Department of Labor consensus estimates for April, both reporting a slight slowdown in job momentum.
Analyzing state job data, 12 states reported positive job gains for the month. Topping the list of states was Maine adding 14% total jobs, followed by Alaska (12%), Delaware (11%), and New Mexico (10%). On the contrary, West Virginia lead all states in job losses, shedding nearly 6% of total job openings.
Retail jobs, along with Oil, Gas & Utilities revealed the strongest category gains, and were 2 of the mere 6 job categories posting positive numbers for the month.
Following bullish job numbers reported last week from both the Department of Labor and ADP, LinkUp adds to the positive economic news by reporting a 29% jump in new job openings found on company websites. Total jobs were up 117,508, or 17%, for the month of March. All 50 US states showed increases in both new and total jobs.
Vermont lead all states with a 73% growth in new jobs, followed by South Carolina and Wyoming, with 60% and 59% respectively.
Jobs by State details: http://www.linkup.com/trends/job-growth-by-state/march-2011.html
Looking at jobs by category, Health & Medical added 93,370 new jobs, followed by Technology, adding 63,970 new jobs in March. All 32 categories reported new job gains. For total jobs, only Banking & Finance jobs showed a marginal 2% drop.
“This is obviously a terrific sign,” commented Toby Dayton, LinkUp’s President and CEO. “We’ve been analyzing jobs data for 24 months, and these are undoubtedly the most positive numbers we’ve seen.”
Jobs by Category details: http://www.linkup.com/trends/job-growth-by-industry/march-2011.html
About LinkUp
Minneapolis-based LinkUp is a national job search engine, only indexing jobs found on corporate career websites. Currently, job seekers can access and apply direct to over 720,000 active jobs from approximately 22,000 companies. By only including jobs from corporate career websites, and not allowing third-party or other job board postings, LinkUp automatically filters out expired jobs, work-at-home and job scams. Access to the website is completely free, and registration is not required. Each month, LinkUp analyzes jobs from local companies of various industries and sizes.
LinkUp reported today that new job listings on company websites fell by 3% in February, while total job listings on company websites rose by 1%. More states saw a decline in new job listings (27 to 22), while more states saw an increase in total job listings (32 to 15). States showing the largest growth in new jobs include Rhode Island (+39%), New Hampshire (+24%), and Maryland (+23%).
In terms of jobs by category, LinkUp’s February data showed similar numbers. New jobs by category fell 3% while total jobs by category rose 1%. Of the 32 job categories tracked by LinkUp, 18 showed an increase in new job listings and 23 showed an increase in total job listings. Top categories for February with new job gains include Automotive (137%), Oil, Gas & Utilities (98%), and Aerospace, Aviation, & Defense (+57%).
LinkUp’s CEO Toby Dayton commented “As much as we’d like to provide some visibility into what direction the job market is heading, February’s numbers were not particularly conclusive either way. I would say, however, that given our strong January numbers and the lag between job listings being published on corporate websites and those job listings translating into actual hires, we do expect that tomorrow’s numbers will be strong.” LinkUp reported that in January, new job listings on company websites rose by 69,000 (16%) over December and total job listings rose by 87,000 (10%). Dayton added, “Unfortunately, we would also expect that our lackluster February numbers will result in a relatively weak jobs report for March.”
LinkUp is the fastest growing job search engine on the web and indexes only jobs that are found on company websites. The search engine does not list any jobs from other job boards, nor does it allow anyone to post jobs directly to the site. Rather, LinkUp currently lists about 700,000 job openings indexed and updated daily from approximately 20,000 company websites throughout the U.S.